In the most recent Journal of Marketing, published by the American Marketing Association, researchers dove into how leaders make marketing decisions in the face of uncertainty.  There were some interesting conclusions:

Expert entrepreneurs rely on resources within their control.  When making marketing decisions in uncertain situations, they don’t turn to market research first, as a traditionalist might do.  In fact, they are likely to underweight predictive information once it is gathered.  Instead they will bias decisions towards their available network of partners and resources. Their preference is towards quickly realized small successes/failures where they can better drive and control the outcome.  At times this approach can limit success through self-imposing channel constraints.  

Experts morph market, product and price along the path.  Through practice in uncertain new ventures, the expert studies the value that each customer derives from a product, and adjusts price, message, and sometimes product as the go-to-market process unfolds.  In contrast to pricing as a lowest common denominator for a given segment, the expert is more likely to price on the basis of the highest level of value they have uncovered.

The bottom line:

If you are engaging in your first adventure as an entrepreneur and making decisions in uncertain situations (aren’t we all these days?), consider using the non-traditional effectual approach, or use both approaches in tandem.  Be prepared to adjust your message, pricing, and possibly product by closely studying early adopter feedback.  Seek out experienced entrepreneurs to help you analyze uncertain situations and mentor you along your path.